Diet and Nutrition. Natural Health, and Healthy Living

In last week’s NEJM, physician-author Abraham Verghese paints a disturbing picture of a medical world in which technology has morphed from tool to object, the patient relegated to a supporting role. To me, Abraham has nailed the diagnosis but not the treatment.

I had the distinct pleasure of getting to know Abraham when we both served on the board of the ABIM (actually I came to know his work 15 years earlier, when I reviewed his bestselling book, My Own Country, for the NEJM). Abraham is a romantic and a traditionalist, and in last week’s New England Journal piece he poignantly lays out a problem he has fretted about for years: namely, that information technology is dehumanizing the practice of medicine. Describing rounds with his ward team at Stanford, his new academic home (he was recently recruited there from the UT-San Antonio), he recalls:

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As we inevitably do this time of year, we prognosticate about the new year. This time around, it's a toughie: there are too many uncertainties that preclude us from doing a straight-line forecast for 2009, especially in health and health care.

Here are some trends and wild cards to keep in mind for 2009: the year of managing risks.

How will the macroeconomy play out against health care in the new year? Keep in mind the Kaiser Family Foundation's metric on unemployment: an increase of 1% unemployment leads to 1.1 million uninsured, and 1 million more people added to Medicaid. This was the math that worked in 2007-8. The metric will probably change in 2009 as Governors struggle to balance budgets while providing medical services, education, and safe streets to citizens. The National Governors Association, and the individual state heads, have all warned that Governors will inevitably cut services in 2009 and into 2010 if tax receipts continue to decline.

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In last week’s Annals of Internal Medicine, Eric Howell and colleagues describe an innovative experiment in which the hospitalists at Johns Hopkins Bayview became the institution’s bed czars. It worked.

So should my program and yours take this one on? If you looked up “Thankless Task” in the dictionary, you might see “Active Bed Manager.” So how did they do this? And why?

Hopkins Bayview is a 335-bed teaching hospital affiliated with Johns Hopkins. The Chief of Medicine, David Hellmann, is an old friend and a gem, a graceful and eloquent man who is constantly looking for improvement opportunities. Under his guidance, several years ago the hospitalist group, led by Howell, agreed to become the medical center’s “Active Bed Managers” for medical patients. The ED sees 54,000 patients a year, and admits about one-quarter of them, three-quarters of these to Medicine.

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A health care Marshall Plan -- $50 Billion stimulus to get electronic health records (EHRs) in every doctor’s hands or $50,000 to each physician -– what an incredible marketing job.

Detroit, are you listening? Stop whining to Congress that you need a bailout. Tell them you want to be the new alternative energy Manhattan Project, get the money, and then keep building SUVs and flying around in corporate jets.

To Congress, Daschle, and Obama, please don’t do this. Our industry, health care, combines the worst of the Big Three automakers with the worst of the hubris, dishonesty, and failure of the public trust of Wall Street. Please do not bail us out.

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A health care Marshall Plan -- $50 Billion stimulus to get electronic health records (EHRs) in every doctor’s hands or $50,000 to each physician -– what an incredible marketing job.

Detroit, are you listening? Stop whining to Congress that you need a bailout. Tell them you want to be the new alternative energy Manhattan Project, get the money, and then keep building SUVs and flying around in corporate jets.

To Congress, Daschle, and Obama, please don’t do this. Our industry, health care, combines the worst of the Big Three automakers with the worst of the hubris, dishonesty, and failure of the public trust of Wall Street. Please do not bail us out.

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Recently, a somewhat starry-eyed op-ed in the New York Times suggested that a $100 billion annual investment in universal health care is just the medicine that our economy needs. The goal, declared Jonathan Gruber, a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology: “Covering every American.”

It is an appealing proposition. But let me suggest that we cannot blindly invest billions in an already bloated health care system. We need to think through where we want the reform dollars to go. Which sectors of a $2.3 trillion health care economy should we stimulate to insure that patients receive the safest, most effective care at a price that they can afford?

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The New York Times published a story this month about one of the biggest medical trials ever organized by the federal government, a study that showed that the newest, most expensive drugs used to treat high blood pressure (a.k.a. hypertension) work no better than inexpensive diuretics—water pills that flush excess fluid and salt from the body. Moreover, the research revealed that the pricier drugs increase the risk of heart failure and stroke.

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The morning after the election, I posted a speculative blog in Health Affairs on three possible scenarios for President-elect Obama’s implementing health reform: folding it into a bold, ambitious emergency legislative package (Complete the New Deal), carving funding out of the current $2.5 trillion national health spend (Braveheart), and postponing implementation until the economy recovers but taking steps now to prepare for it (Wait/Lay the Groundwork).

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These are, as the Chinese curse reputedly called them, interesting times.

If the burst of new Democratic health care reform proposals is any indication, a fresh breeze of the Obama campaign's "Yes We Can" optimism is blowing across the nation. Mr. Obama’s team is expected to make health care one of its priorities. First out, though, was Senate Finance Committee Chair Baucus (D-MT), who introduced an aggressive health care reform package that builds on Mr. Obama’s campaign platform of cost controls and extended coverage. Senator Kennedy (D-MA) and Representatives Dingell (D-MI) and Stark (D-CA) are expected to offer proposals soon, and undoubtedly there will be others.

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In a letter of congratulations, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus told Obama he's already got health reform on his radar.

THCB regular Michael Millenson doesn't understand Baucus' strategy.

Here’s Millenson's two theories on what this could mean:

Scenario No. 1: The Republicans in Congress, chastened by their election losses, join in a lame-duck effort with Democrats who, in the a spirit of forgiveness and comity, help pass a bipartisan health care reform plan before Christmas. President Bush, fresh from long weeks of prayer and repentance, signs the bill on the morning of January 20 with President-elect Obama looking on. Bush hands him a pen, and then they step out onto the Capitol Rotunda for the swearing-in.
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